Anyway, so I just finished a homegame, and was part of a very interesting hand. It's a $0.25/$0.50 NLH ring game with a $40 table limit. I had ~$80-90 in my stack, and came up as UTG against the Button (villain), who had a comparable stack. The game allowed for straddles UTG.
CO ($80.26)
Villain (Button) ($85.87)
SB ($15.62)
BB ($11.20)
Hero (UTG) ($89.15)
UTG+1 ($40.09)
MP1 ($25.47)
MP2 ($130.38)
MP3 ($34.68)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10
, 10
Hero straddles $1, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $3, 2 folds, Villain calls $3, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6, MP2 calls $3, Villain calls $3
Flop: ($18.75) 6
, 3, 7 (3 players)Hero bets $15, 1 fold, Villain calls $15
Turn: ($48.75) 7
(2 players)Hero bets $15, Villain raises to $34.75
Pot odds were a favorable 4.99 to 1, but I just couldn't put the villain on a hand.
So I thought: What could beat me? AA-JJ, 7X, 66, and 33. AA and KK seemed unreasonable because I would expect a player on the button to re-raise. Due to the tightish nature of the villain, 7X seems unlikely, unless it is 77 or A7 suited diamonds. However, I don't think those hands can call my re-raise. 66 seems less likely (because of the re-raise) and 33 seems impossible. So really, I'm expecting QQ or JJ, as they both fit into the betting profile. If that is the case, then I'm only 5% to win.
What could I beat? Lots of things, right? I beat 99,88, 55, 44, 22, AX (save 7s), etc. These hands are still drawing and didn't seem it could stick around amidst all the action. I couldn't see any of these hands playing to the flop, then pushing the turn.
I fold, and Villain shows 99.
Now, I can't help but wonder if I missed something.
