This past weekend was the Caesars/Horseshoe changeover (technically, the Horseshoe's grand opening). The new digs are actually pretty nice; everything is very upscale and has more of a casino-y feel, if that makes sense. After watching a free Barenaked Ladies concert (put on by Horseshoe), AA and I decended to the newly renovated poker floor. Not much changed except the high stakes area "cage" was replaced by a 1/4 wall. Also, at the high stakes tables, there are nicer chairs. On the regular floor, everything else was the same; same tables (33 now, and no blackjack tables), same WSOP chairs, cupholders, quasi-old chips (the Horseshoe chips replaced the Caesars chips some time before the grand opening), and, yes, same donkey players.
With AA and JA (AA's wife) playing slots/roulette the money we received for attending the free concert ($5 each), I sat for 2 dealers at the $1-2 NLH table. The only interesting hand I remember was:
$1-2 NHL
SB - $155
BB - $85
UTG - $500
UTG + 1 - $575
UTG + 2 (Villain) - $350
UTG + 3 - $110
UTG + 4 - $300
UTG + 5 - $700 (maybe 800)
UTG + 6 - $300
CO (Hero) - $200
Hero is dealt QcQs
Blinds post. UTG - UTG + 6 limp for $2. Pot is $17. Hero raises to $15. All fold to Villain, who calls $15. Pot is $47.
Flop - Jc2c9s
Villain checks. Hero bets $30. Villain calls. Pot is $107.
Turn - Ts
Villain checks. Hero bets $70. Villain thinks, then calls. Pot is $247.
River - 8c
Villain pushes all in. Hero folds.
I folded on the river because I came to 2 conclusions: either the villain caught his flush, or he realized the situation, and executed the proper theatrics to bluff properly. I've played against this particular player a few months earlier and I remembered him being fairly weak, so, I ruled out the"making a move" option. Everything else seemed to point to hands that beat me. No sets because I would have expected him to repop the turn, and/or check the river (notice I'm really not giving this guy credit for being able to make moves). JT-J8 were all likely holdings, and they all beat me. All I could really beat was AX - JQ. I think, despite ignoring the pot odds at the end, I made the correct lay-down. I really didn't think he was a sophisticated player, and, he proved it a few times by continuing hands when he knew he was beat, and being caught in errant bluffs (that were not similarly played as compared to this hand).
I showed 1.1 to 1 preflop, 1.6 to 1 on the flop, and 1.5 to 1 on the turn. So, really, unless he had pocket aces preflop, he made mistakes on every street, which is exactly what you hope players do; make mistakes. So long as I keep playing those hands the same way, I'll make money in the long run... or I *hope* to make money in the long run.
In other news, I've picked up the Harrington on Cash Games (HOCG) Vol. 1 & 2. Hopefully, they'll be as good as the HOH series.
Finally, I squandered my Fulltilt winnings and have reloaded. Maybe this time, I'll be able to catch a "Ferguson" run to $10K.
EDIT: PS: 2 new goals. First, earn at least one Fulltilt Iron Man medal by December. Second: Due to the recent success of David Dao (old family friend from childhood days), I'd like to be listed as a ranked player in the player database on Poker Pages.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Hand Analysis Ex Post Facto of Last Evening's Crowbar
Ok, now that I'm not tilting and am fully awake without headache, here is a hand analysis of my bust out last evening.
I sat at the table when it opened. Table limit is $300.
$1-$2 NLH Live Game
Button - $300
SB - $500
BB - $350
UTG - $275
Villain - $192
Hero - $250
Hero is dealt TT
Blinds post. Live straddle from the button for $7. SB, BB, UTG and Villain call $7. Pot is $28. Hero raises to $27. All fold to Villain, who calls. Pot is $75
Flop: 3 9 2, rainbow.
Villain checks, Hero bets $30, Villain calls. Pot is $135
Turn: 7
Villain bets $40. Hero raises to $100. Villain calls. Pot is $335
River: 8
Villain goes all in for $65 more. Hero calls. Villain shows 98os and wins with two pair.
Ok, so first, let's run the numbers. Villain calls a bet with 2-1 pot odds. He is a 2-1 dog to most raise-able drawing hands (AK-AT,KQ-KT,QT-QJ,JT) suited or unsuited, and a 5-1 dog to most raise-able pocket pairs (AA-TT). According to CardPlayer's Poker Odds Calculator, I was 84.87% to win versus his 14.75% with 0.37% tie rating, or a 5.8 - 1 favorite. So, I made my opponent call as a 5.8 - 1 dog, with only 2-1 pot odds; good move for me, bad move for him.
The flop comes and improves his odds. He's now 18.38% to win the hand, so he's improved to be a 4.4-1 dog instead of a 5.8-1 dog. Now, I bet $30 into a $75 pot, $105 total, giving him 3.5 - 1 pot odds. Still a mistake for him to call theoretically, but it's close. Marginal play on my part for letting him in so cheap.
Turn comes 7. The odds are now 7.8-1 for me to win the hand. He bets $40 into $135 pot, $175 total, and showing me 4.3-1 pot odds. A call would also be correct since I'm 7.8-1, but I reraise to $100. This makes the pot $275, and he has to call an extra $60, which is 4.6-1 pot odds. Mistake #2 for Villain.
River, he pushes the rest of his stack, $65, making the pot $400, and showing me 6.1-1 pot odds. As bad as I hated it, I had to call. The pot odds were just too good. No straight or flush possible. I couldn't put him on an overpair, or he would have raised preflop. There was the possibility of a set, but I think he would have fired earlier on the set, as I didn't give him credit for being able to slow play for so long.
So basically, he had 5 wins left in the deck, and he caught one of them. Bad luck for me, but I still think that the pot odds could not be denied. Pros would make this call all day long (I think). The math was correct the whole way. After hitting bingo on me, he totally fell apart, got too aggressive and lost what he took away from me. Maybe I should have reloaded, but I'm trying to save up for some other non-poker events coming up soon. :)
Aside from the numbers, in trying to recall the hand, I realized that I could not remember the flop properly, as in I don't remember the suits nor the third card on the flop. It seem that, contrary to what I have been preaching about "play the player," I need to be able to settle down a bit and focus on the cards again. I feel like I played the player well, but I also need to be able to remember the situation so that I may learn from it. I used to be able to remember every hand I played, along with every street, and every bet. Need to get back there.
Lastly, it was good to see some familiar faces at the tables. One guy, who used to be one of my partners in crime down there had moved back from NY, was there. Also, a couple of the more friendly high stakes players were there (thanks again BB for the candy). It was good to see that they are still rolling well, and were up more than down these days. Man, sometimes I wish I was still living that life. Maybe I will again some day, but nights like last night bring back memories of the stress that came with playing poker for a primary source of income.
I sat at the table when it opened. Table limit is $300.
$1-$2 NLH Live Game
Button - $300
SB - $500
BB - $350
UTG - $275
Villain - $192
Hero - $250
Hero is dealt TT
Blinds post. Live straddle from the button for $7. SB, BB, UTG and Villain call $7. Pot is $28. Hero raises to $27. All fold to Villain, who calls. Pot is $75
Flop: 3 9 2, rainbow.
Villain checks, Hero bets $30, Villain calls. Pot is $135
Turn: 7
Villain bets $40. Hero raises to $100. Villain calls. Pot is $335
River: 8
Villain goes all in for $65 more. Hero calls. Villain shows 98os and wins with two pair.
Ok, so first, let's run the numbers. Villain calls a bet with 2-1 pot odds. He is a 2-1 dog to most raise-able drawing hands (AK-AT,KQ-KT,QT-QJ,JT) suited or unsuited, and a 5-1 dog to most raise-able pocket pairs (AA-TT). According to CardPlayer's Poker Odds Calculator, I was 84.87% to win versus his 14.75% with 0.37% tie rating, or a 5.8 - 1 favorite. So, I made my opponent call as a 5.8 - 1 dog, with only 2-1 pot odds; good move for me, bad move for him.
The flop comes and improves his odds. He's now 18.38% to win the hand, so he's improved to be a 4.4-1 dog instead of a 5.8-1 dog. Now, I bet $30 into a $75 pot, $105 total, giving him 3.5 - 1 pot odds. Still a mistake for him to call theoretically, but it's close. Marginal play on my part for letting him in so cheap.
Turn comes 7. The odds are now 7.8-1 for me to win the hand. He bets $40 into $135 pot, $175 total, and showing me 4.3-1 pot odds. A call would also be correct since I'm 7.8-1, but I reraise to $100. This makes the pot $275, and he has to call an extra $60, which is 4.6-1 pot odds. Mistake #2 for Villain.
River, he pushes the rest of his stack, $65, making the pot $400, and showing me 6.1-1 pot odds. As bad as I hated it, I had to call. The pot odds were just too good. No straight or flush possible. I couldn't put him on an overpair, or he would have raised preflop. There was the possibility of a set, but I think he would have fired earlier on the set, as I didn't give him credit for being able to slow play for so long.
So basically, he had 5 wins left in the deck, and he caught one of them. Bad luck for me, but I still think that the pot odds could not be denied. Pros would make this call all day long (I think). The math was correct the whole way. After hitting bingo on me, he totally fell apart, got too aggressive and lost what he took away from me. Maybe I should have reloaded, but I'm trying to save up for some other non-poker events coming up soon. :)
Aside from the numbers, in trying to recall the hand, I realized that I could not remember the flop properly, as in I don't remember the suits nor the third card on the flop. It seem that, contrary to what I have been preaching about "play the player," I need to be able to settle down a bit and focus on the cards again. I feel like I played the player well, but I also need to be able to remember the situation so that I may learn from it. I used to be able to remember every hand I played, along with every street, and every bet. Need to get back there.
Lastly, it was good to see some familiar faces at the tables. One guy, who used to be one of my partners in crime down there had moved back from NY, was there. Also, a couple of the more friendly high stakes players were there (thanks again BB for the candy). It was good to see that they are still rolling well, and were up more than down these days. Man, sometimes I wish I was still living that life. Maybe I will again some day, but nights like last night bring back memories of the stress that came with playing poker for a primary source of income.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Change of Focus
Man, lately it seems like I've been on the bad end of variance. Tonight, I was playing $1-$2 NLH at Caesars. It was a good night for my friends JG and AG because they're fairly new to poker; one came out even, and the other was ahead. When starting to play, it's always nice to have winning sessions. I've read, and have been told, that you should be happy with your play so long as you make correct decisions. This follows the thought that so long as you do the right thing, the money will come in the long run. I believe this is true, but, a poker player still needs to make money.
I laid down my TT when I ran up against an overpair. I laid down KK when I knew I was beat. I made good reads all night, only to lose my stack to some donk who couldn't lay down the worst hand (and caught 2 pair on the river).
I should probably shift to tournament poker until I can rebuild my stack. I needed to rebuy and sit and crush the (few) donks at my table, but my bankroll isn't there anymore. I only had one bullet. In tournament play, one can apply pressure to a player better than in a cash game (IMHO) because, in a cash game, players can buy back in if they can afford it. Also, for a little money, you can win a lot if you have the skill.
Anyway, enough of my rant. I'll be back Saturday!!!
BTW: Good luck to AA who is playing a PL Omaha Hi/Lo FullTilt Fantasy Freeroll Championship. He's the chip leader. Also congrats to AG and JG for their winnings tonight!
I laid down my TT when I ran up against an overpair. I laid down KK when I knew I was beat. I made good reads all night, only to lose my stack to some donk who couldn't lay down the worst hand (and caught 2 pair on the river).
I should probably shift to tournament poker until I can rebuild my stack. I needed to rebuy and sit and crush the (few) donks at my table, but my bankroll isn't there anymore. I only had one bullet. In tournament play, one can apply pressure to a player better than in a cash game (IMHO) because, in a cash game, players can buy back in if they can afford it. Also, for a little money, you can win a lot if you have the skill.
Anyway, enough of my rant. I'll be back Saturday!!!
BTW: Good luck to AA who is playing a PL Omaha Hi/Lo FullTilt Fantasy Freeroll Championship. He's the chip leader. Also congrats to AG and JG for their winnings tonight!
Saturday, July 5, 2008
Beware! Negreanu-esque blog
(continued from a tweet on 7/6/2008). Actually, I think I'm just tired of hold'em in general. BTW, I know it's been almost a year since my last post, and I had fallen off the wagon a bit poker-wise, but I have been playing. In the past year I've noticed that hold 'em has become more like bingo, especially at the lower limits. There's often no strategy employed at these limits because the people who sit across from you have NO concept of correct play.
I went to the boat on 9/15/07 and found myself at a very juicy $1-2NLH table. People would call with absolutely ridiculous cards, and I was just waiting to bust them. I actually employed a little Hellmuth strategy: PRF with a good hand, C-Bet, when people come over the top, fold to show that you'll fold to a bet. I've seen Hellmuth talk about this technique all of the time; portraying weakness as a set up for a big trap later. Well, I did pulled it off. Doubled through a few people like that at the tables, and in the 2 single table satellites I sat in. Strict conservative poker would have had me lose money, but employing smallball techniques, I didn't have to invest much to pull it off. I am still amazed at the number of donkeys that think they know what they're doing at the tables. I had a guy sit yesterday and tell us about all the "fish" at his other table... and he was only up like $150. Wow. Lots of fish there!
I remember playing the $1-3 NL Hold'em game at Argosy sometime in February '08 (before flying out for my MBA interview at Cornell) while waiting for a spot on a $2-5 NLH table. I was playing very tight to conserve my stack for the big game. I don't remember the exact hand, but I remember making a 10-15xBB PFR with a high suited connector in position (maybe KQ or KJ). One person called. Flop came and I flopped top pair (the other 2 were like a 5-8 or something), rainbow. She checks, I bet 2/3 pot and she calls without hesitation, so I start to think she has 2 pair, middle pair, or a medium pocket par. Turn gives me 2 pair. I fire again (1/2 pot), and she calls. River comes 7, only 2 cards to a flush. I'm not sure where I'm at, so I make a probe bet; like BBx2, only to get reraised. I called because I feel my 2 pair was good because I was only afraid of a set of 5s or 8s. I beat everything else, or so I thought. Apparently, the flop gave the girl a gutshot straight draw, which she caught on the river. Yeah. That's poker, right? The thing that bugs me the most is that she had the gall to say "yeah, I knew he had top pair at least, but sometimes I like to try to hit those." Yes, yes, I know that you want people to do that to you all day long, but it just bugs me that, afterward, she tried to justify her bad play to me. Consequently, I flopped a straight on her only for her to catch a flush at the end. Again, that's poker; I get it. Just save me the soliloquy.
Lately, though, hold 'em feels very much like the same ol' same ol'. I wish that Caesars (which is soon to be the Horseshoe) would spread other games, like an affordable Stud/Stud Hilo game, or more Omaha games. Tonight's session at Caesars was no exception to the usual donk poker at low limits. Nothing noteworthy hand-wise, but just a general reiteration of the wreckless nature of the low limit poker players, be it in limit or no-limit games.
I've been playing a lot of mixed games online such as HORSE/HOSE/HA, and I've recently revived my PokerStars account to try to learn Kansas City (2-7) Lowball Triple Draw. I'm becoming a big fan of 2-7, but I'm still having trouble figuring out the odds and the hand selection. Most recently, I've began to do the Chris Ferguson challenge. The challenge is: build up $10K from scratch by winning freerolls etc. I am now up to an astounding $4.68, mostly by playing mixed games or Omaha freerolls. I'll keep everyone posted as to the results.
Ok, that's all for now!
I went to the boat on 9/15/07 and found myself at a very juicy $1-2NLH table. People would call with absolutely ridiculous cards, and I was just waiting to bust them. I actually employed a little Hellmuth strategy: PRF with a good hand, C-Bet, when people come over the top, fold to show that you'll fold to a bet. I've seen Hellmuth talk about this technique all of the time; portraying weakness as a set up for a big trap later. Well, I did pulled it off. Doubled through a few people like that at the tables, and in the 2 single table satellites I sat in. Strict conservative poker would have had me lose money, but employing smallball techniques, I didn't have to invest much to pull it off. I am still amazed at the number of donkeys that think they know what they're doing at the tables. I had a guy sit yesterday and tell us about all the "fish" at his other table... and he was only up like $150. Wow. Lots of fish there!
I remember playing the $1-3 NL Hold'em game at Argosy sometime in February '08 (before flying out for my MBA interview at Cornell) while waiting for a spot on a $2-5 NLH table. I was playing very tight to conserve my stack for the big game. I don't remember the exact hand, but I remember making a 10-15xBB PFR with a high suited connector in position (maybe KQ or KJ). One person called. Flop came and I flopped top pair (the other 2 were like a 5-8 or something), rainbow. She checks, I bet 2/3 pot and she calls without hesitation, so I start to think she has 2 pair, middle pair, or a medium pocket par. Turn gives me 2 pair. I fire again (1/2 pot), and she calls. River comes 7, only 2 cards to a flush. I'm not sure where I'm at, so I make a probe bet; like BBx2, only to get reraised. I called because I feel my 2 pair was good because I was only afraid of a set of 5s or 8s. I beat everything else, or so I thought. Apparently, the flop gave the girl a gutshot straight draw, which she caught on the river. Yeah. That's poker, right? The thing that bugs me the most is that she had the gall to say "yeah, I knew he had top pair at least, but sometimes I like to try to hit those." Yes, yes, I know that you want people to do that to you all day long, but it just bugs me that, afterward, she tried to justify her bad play to me. Consequently, I flopped a straight on her only for her to catch a flush at the end. Again, that's poker; I get it. Just save me the soliloquy.
Lately, though, hold 'em feels very much like the same ol' same ol'. I wish that Caesars (which is soon to be the Horseshoe) would spread other games, like an affordable Stud/Stud Hilo game, or more Omaha games. Tonight's session at Caesars was no exception to the usual donk poker at low limits. Nothing noteworthy hand-wise, but just a general reiteration of the wreckless nature of the low limit poker players, be it in limit or no-limit games.
I've been playing a lot of mixed games online such as HORSE/HOSE/HA, and I've recently revived my PokerStars account to try to learn Kansas City (2-7) Lowball Triple Draw. I'm becoming a big fan of 2-7, but I'm still having trouble figuring out the odds and the hand selection. Most recently, I've began to do the Chris Ferguson challenge. The challenge is: build up $10K from scratch by winning freerolls etc. I am now up to an astounding $4.68, mostly by playing mixed games or Omaha freerolls. I'll keep everyone posted as to the results.
Ok, that's all for now!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)