Trust Your Instincts, but Think About Big Hands Also

2 very interesting situations came up this weekend. I was playing $1-2NLH last Saturday evening when a couple sat down at our table. I had seen the guy before, though I hadn't seen his wife. It turns out that the wife is a much stronger player than the husband. I was sitting in seat 7, the husband took seat 8, and the wife took seat 9. So, as the night wore on, I saw seat 8 make some absolutely horrendous calls, say a call with TT (black) on a board with 23577, four diaminds to a raise and reraise. He actually lost his whole stack (~$200) about 20-30 hands before this hand. He went and re-bought for $80, and is down to $75 or so when:

$1-2NLH
SB - $300ish
BB - $325
UTG (Hero) - $350
UTG+1 (Villain) - $75
UTG+2 - $500
UTG+4 - $200ish

Hero is dealt KK

Blinds post. Hero raises to $15. Villain calls, UTG+2 calls, UTG+4 calls. The rest fold. Pot is $63.

Flop: 2 3 9 rainbow.

Hero bets $35. Villain raises all in for $60. Pot is now $158.

I thought, "...well I guess this guy hit bingo..." I guess I had been raising a lot of pots because I my raises were getting a lot of action. At any rate, I was getting 6 to 1 pot odds to call. So I went into the tank and thought about what I could beat.

I can beat QQ-TT, 88-44, and most suited connector combinations. All I'm really scared of is AA, 99, 33, and 22.

Next question; what would this guy call me with? Well, he's looking for an opportunity to double up, and doesn't know how to fold a lousy hand, so he could have top pair with a good kicker, 2 pair (23, probably not 29 or 39), or a set. So, overall, I looked like I was in good shape.

But, there was something about the hand that made me wonder. This dude is on tilt, and he's a bad player, and I don't think he'd slow down if he hit a set. Something didn't seem right. So I did the math if my worst fears were correct. If he had 2 pair, I was a 4 to 1 dog, but I was getting 6 to 1 on my money. If he had a set, which is what I felt like he had, I was drawing to 2 outs, so like a 25 to 1 dog or something.

I folded, and showed my KK. He showed me his 88 and raked the pot. Wow. After "color commentary" from the "poker pros" at the table, I still felt like, and still believe today that I did the correct thing in that I followed my instincts. However, I made my decision based more on my feel of the situation, rather than the concrete facts of the situation. Probably 90% feel. So, had I sat back and thought about the whole situation, I would have probably focused more on the hands that I was beating and insta-called. Bad play for me.

I ended up winning it all back and then some from him before that dude busted out.

Hand number 2. Consequently, the hand I hang my hat for the session. The table I was at had broke up, and I was placed at a new table. I didn't know much about the players before this hand came up:


BB (Hero) - $400ish
UTG - $1500
UTG+2 - $500

Hero is dealt KK (no diamonds)

Blinds post, all players limp. Hero raises to $15. UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $35. All fold to Hero, who calls, UTG calls. Pot is $125.

Flop: J 7 8, 2 diamonds

Hero bets $35. UTG calls. UTG+2 raises to $135. Action to Hero.

So, again I go into the tank. Preflop, I raised, UTG+2 reraised. So, that makes me think, AA-JJ, AK-AJ suited/off-suit. The flop comes, and I take the lead again, and UTG+2 reraises again. So, I think, maybe he's protecting his AA, maybe he hit a set and is protecting against the flush. Not sure, though the reraise tells me that I'm most certainly beat. Add that to the fact that I'm sandwiched between two players, and I reluctantly fold. UTG eventually folds, and the villain show the set. Wow, great laydown for me!

His story was just too compelling for me to think I was ahead. So I was 1 for 2 in big plays that day. Not so bad, I think.