Hand Analysis Ex Post Facto of Last Evening's Crowbar

Ok, now that I'm not tilting and am fully awake without headache, here is a hand analysis of my bust out last evening.

I sat at the table when it opened. Table limit is $300.

$1-$2 NLH Live Game

Button - $300
SB - $500
BB - $350
UTG - $275
Villain - $192
Hero - $250

Hero is dealt TT

Blinds post. Live straddle from the button for $7. SB, BB, UTG and Villain call $7. Pot is $28. Hero raises to $27. All fold to Villain, who calls. Pot is $75

Flop: 3 9 2, rainbow.

Villain checks, Hero bets $30, Villain calls. Pot is $135

Turn: 7

Villain bets $40. Hero raises to $100. Villain calls. Pot is $335

River: 8

Villain goes all in for $65 more. Hero calls. Villain shows 98os and wins with two pair.

Ok, so first, let's run the numbers. Villain calls a bet with 2-1 pot odds. He is a 2-1 dog to most raise-able drawing hands (AK-AT,KQ-KT,QT-QJ,JT) suited or unsuited, and a 5-1 dog to most raise-able pocket pairs (AA-TT). According to CardPlayer's Poker Odds Calculator, I was 84.87% to win versus his 14.75% with 0.37% tie rating, or a 5.8 - 1 favorite. So, I made my opponent call as a 5.8 - 1 dog, with only 2-1 pot odds; good move for me, bad move for him.

The flop comes and improves his odds. He's now 18.38% to win the hand, so he's improved to be a 4.4-1 dog instead of a 5.8-1 dog. Now, I bet $30 into a $75 pot, $105 total, giving him 3.5 - 1 pot odds. Still a mistake for him to call theoretically, but it's close. Marginal play on my part for letting him in so cheap.

Turn comes 7. The odds are now 7.8-1 for me to win the hand. He bets $40 into $135 pot, $175 total, and showing me 4.3-1 pot odds. A call would also be correct since I'm 7.8-1, but I reraise to $100. This makes the pot $275, and he has to call an extra $60, which is 4.6-1 pot odds. Mistake #2 for Villain.

River, he pushes the rest of his stack, $65, making the pot $400, and showing me 6.1-1 pot odds. As bad as I hated it, I had to call. The pot odds were just too good. No straight or flush possible. I couldn't put him on an overpair, or he would have raised preflop. There was the possibility of a set, but I think he would have fired earlier on the set, as I didn't give him credit for being able to slow play for so long.

So basically, he had 5 wins left in the deck, and he caught one of them. Bad luck for me, but I still think that the pot odds could not be denied. Pros would make this call all day long (I think). The math was correct the whole way. After hitting bingo on me, he totally fell apart, got too aggressive and lost what he took away from me. Maybe I should have reloaded, but I'm trying to save up for some other non-poker events coming up soon. :)

Aside from the numbers, in trying to recall the hand, I realized that I could not remember the flop properly, as in I don't remember the suits nor the third card on the flop. It seem that, contrary to what I have been preaching about "play the player," I need to be able to settle down a bit and focus on the cards again. I feel like I played the player well, but I also need to be able to remember the situation so that I may learn from it. I used to be able to remember every hand I played, along with every street, and every bet. Need to get back there.

Lastly, it was good to see some familiar faces at the tables. One guy, who used to be one of my partners in crime down there had moved back from NY, was there. Also, a couple of the more friendly high stakes players were there (thanks again BB for the candy). It was good to see that they are still rolling well, and were up more than down these days. Man, sometimes I wish I was still living that life. Maybe I will again some day, but nights like last night bring back memories of the stress that came with playing poker for a primary source of income.